Workshop: Designing Development Scenarios for Land-use Modeling

Vientiane, Lao PDR; Phnom Penh, Cambodia, 12 to 16 February 2017

Information on how future development may unfold is essential for land use change modeling.

Well thought out and quantifiable information on development scenarios enables land-use models to create spatial maps that provide quality information for decision makers to balance economic, environmental, and social considerations.

Back-to-back workshops in Lao PDR and Cambodia in February will bring together university representatives and government planners and policy makers to learn about best practices for scenario design in the context of land use change.

Conducted under CEP’s Building Capacity for Land Use Change Modeling activity, the 2-day national workshops will be delivered by the Free University of Amsterdam, firstly in Vientiane (13-14 February) and then in Phnom Penh (16-17 February).

Day 1 will focus on introducing the general concepts of scenario design. This will include identifying the key drivers of land use change in the country, as well as the most important plans and policies that are likely to influence land use change in the coming years. Some key drivers and policies and plans will be selected as a basis for the actual design of the scenarios.

On day 2, participants will create the main ‘storyline’ for each scenario and then quantify the major elements of the scenarios so they can be inputted into CLUMondo, a CEP developed land use change modelling application. Examples of quantifiable information include % changes in agriculture land area or protected areas, or perhaps the % change in the amount of timber harvested per year.

Due to time constraints, actual computation of the scenarios into CLUMondo will not occur during the workshop. Instead, participants will be shown examples of CLUMondo produced spatial maps and how they can be used by decision-makers to assess development opportunities and risks.

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